Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
